- Process: Identify → Analyze → Plan → Monitor. This chapter covers threats only; opportunities appear briefly on slide 72.
- The outline follows the process order.
- Risk = an uncertain event; + = opportunity, − = threat.
- Four questions: what can happen, how likely, how much damage/benefit, what can we do.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
In PMBOK 7, a risk can only have negative effects.
False. Positive risks are opportunities.
- A risk has NOT happened yet: 0 < P < 1. If P = 1 it is an issue, not a risk.
- Active risk management = a sign of a mature organization.
- Threat classes: requirements (incorrect, incomplete, unclear, volatile), cost, schedule, quality, life-cycle/operational (bad hand-offs, no docs).
- Two halves: assessment (identify, analyze, prioritize) and control (plan, resolve, monitor).
- Each step has an output: list of risks → prioritized list → response plans → assessment. Monitoring loops back to identification.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
What is the output of the risk analysis step?
Correct: A prioritized risk list.
Arabic gloss for advocacy: “مناصرة”.
- Risk management tests the plan before you start, and helps you SELL it (stakeholders advocate, not just approve).
- Typical threats: testing overruns, late vendor, losing a key engineer, ownership change, downsizing, disasters.
- Identification is iterative: keep adding, deleting and refining risks all project long.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
Risk identification is done once at project start.
False. It is iterative and incremental throughout the project.
- Known = found by evaluating the plan; estimated from history; handled by response plans.
- Predictable (unknown) = probability known, impact not → contingency.
- Unknowable = beyond risk management (disasters, war) → crisis/disaster management.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
A terrorist attack or major natural disaster is classified as:
Correct: Unknowable risk.
- Identify risks as a TEAM, using checklists and SWOT.
- Classify risks by predictability, type (project/technical/business), category, or source.
- Project risks threaten the PLAN: schedule slips, costs rise (budget, staff, resources, requirements, size).
- Technical risks threaten QUALITY and timeliness of the software (design, interfaces, verification, security).
- Business risks threaten the product’s VIABILITY: no market, off-strategy, unsellable, lost management support or budget.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
Building a great product that no one wants anymore is which risk type?
Correct: Business (market) risk.
- RBS = WBS for risks: categories broken down hierarchically. Its bottom level seeds the checklist.
Seen again
- Brainstorming = group, ideas spark ideas.
- Delphi = anonymous expert questionnaires via a facilitator; no direct interaction → avoids groupthink.
Asked in a real exam
🎯 How this can come up · 2 questions
Which technique uses a facilitator and anonymous questionnaires so experts don’t influence each other?
Correct: Delphi.
List two software risk identification techniques and explain how you would mitigate, prioritize and monitor the risks (Final 251).
Identification: (1) brainstorming with a diverse team, and the Delphi technique where experts answer anonymously to avoid groupthink; (2) checklist analysis built from past projects and the lowest level of the RBS (also: root-cause/5-whys, assumptions analysis, interviews, SWOT). Prioritize: estimate probability and impact, compute risk exposure RE = P × I, and place each risk in the probability-impact matrix; actively manage only the top-10 high risks. Mitigate: choose a strategy per threat: avoid (remove the cause), transfer (contract or insurance), mitigate (more testing, simpler design), or accept with a contingency reserve; give every risk an owner. Monitor: keep a top-10 risk list and the risk register updated, review risks in weekly meetings and status reports, watch triggers, and hold reassessments and audits at milestones.
- RCA: the visible cause is often superficial. “5 Whys” drills down to the root.
- Example ends at: no formal process for requirement elaboration before sprint planning.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
Your team keeps missing sprint goals. Apply the 5 Whys briefly.
Why missed? Issues found late. Why late? Requirements unclear before coding. Why unclear? Stories lack acceptance criteria. Why? Stakeholders expect the team to fill gaps. Why? No formal requirement-elaboration step before sprint planning → that root cause is the risk to address.
- Checklist = from past projects; start from the lowest RBS level. Never complete because projects are unique.
- Test each assumption on validity and on consequence if false. False → it becomes a risk.
- Diagrams: fishbone, flowcharts, influence diagrams.
- Fishbone = effect at the head, causes on the bones.
- Example effect: module defects. Bones: process, staff, design, environment, testing, requirements.
- Flowchart of the risk response process: trigger → execute plan? → review → high? → act → monitor → document.
- Influence diagram = causal links between variables (scope → quality → cost and time).
- More techniques: past experience, historical data, decision-driver analysis, security threat identification.
- Seven checklist subcategories: product size, business impact, customer, process, development environment, technology, staff. Slides 32–38 give the questions.
- Bigger product = bigger risk. Compare with past projects.
- Business impact questions: revenue, visibility, deadline realism, users, regulations.
- Customer questions: any “NO” = investigate.
- Process questions: any “NO” = investigate.
- Technology questions: here a “YES” signals risk (new, unproven tech).
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
In the technology risk checklist, answering “YES” to questions signals risk.
True.
- Development environment: tools, integration, training. “NO” = investigate.
- Staff questions: best people? right skills? enough? committed?
- Output of identification = the RISK REGISTER (risks, potential responses, root causes, categories). Analysis columns are filled later.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
What is the main output of risk identification?
Correct: The risk register.
- Analysis objectives: source, exposure, time frame, highest severity, cost-efficiently.
- Risk Exposure RE = P × I. P between 0 and 1, I in weeks or money.
Related real-exam questions
- 25% × 4 weeks = 1 week; 15% × 10 weeks = 1.5 weeks.
- Sum of all REs = expected overrun (here 2.5 weeks).
🎯 How this can come up · 2 questions
A risk has 20% probability and would cost 15 days. Its risk exposure is:
0.2 × 15 = 3.
Two risks have RE of 1 week and 1.5 weeks. The expected overrun is:
Correct: 2.5 weeks.
- 5-point Likert: <20, 20–40, 40–60, 60–80, >80%.
- 3-point for fuzzy cases: Low <35, Moderate 35–75, High >75%.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
On the five-point scale, “Likely” means:
Correct: 60% < p < 80%.
- Impact = pain or gain on cost, time, scope, quality. Use consistent criteria for borderline cases.
- P×I matrix combines probability and impact into one rating (low/medium/high).
- High-high → formal response plan.
Asked in a real exam
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
How does a risk assessment matrix help decide which risks need immediate action?
It combines each risk’s probability and impact into a single rating (low, medium, high, extreme) on one grid, so risks become comparable. Risks in the high-probability/high-impact cells get formal response plans and owners immediately; medium ones are planned or monitored; low ones go on a watch list. This focuses limited time and money on the few risks that matter most (80/20).
- 80/20: a few risks cause most damage, so focus on them and ignore the bottom ones.
- Garbage data → useless analysis. Check data quality, availability, reliability, accuracy.
- The analyst’s personality (averse, seeking, neutral) biases the analysis.
- After analysis the register gets: ranking, groups, near-term list, further-analysis list, watch list, trends.
- Risk management planning decides HOW all risk activities will be done.
- Do not handle everything at once: actively manage the TOP 10, keep the rest on a watch list.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
According to the slide, how many risks should be actively managed?
Correct: The top ten.
- Inputs: enterprise environmental factors (history, research), …
- Most critical environmental factor = RISK TOLERANCE: take a risk only if benefits outweigh possible loss.
- …organizational process assets (policies) and the project scope statement (deliverables, constraints, assumptions, initial risks).
- The risk management plan becomes part of the project management plan.
Next to the heading: “Meetings are the main tool.”
- Main tool = planning MEETINGS. Only output = the RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
The only output of risk management planning is:
Correct: The risk management plan.
- Plan content: methodology, roles (risk owners), budgeting, timing, categories…
- …stakeholder tolerances, reporting formats, tracking.
- Response effort matches severity. If the response costs more than the risk, find a cheaper response.
- Responses must be timely (late = new risk), agreed, and owned by ONE risk owner.
- Pairs: Avoid ↔ Exploit, Mitigate ↔ Enhance, Transfer ↔ Share, Accept for both.
- Avoid = remove the risk or its cause; best early in the project.
- Example: drop the risky integration requirement.
Asked in a real exam
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
Dropping a risky external-system integration requirement is which strategy?
Correct: Avoidance.
- Transfer = move risk and consequence to a third party (insurance, outsourcing). Best for financial risks.
- Fixed-price: contractor carries the risk (and prices it in).
- Cost-reimbursable: buyer carries most of the risk.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
Under a cost-reimbursable contract, most of the risk stays with:
Correct: The buyer.
- RMMM: Mitigation (avoid it), Monitoring (track indicators), Management (contingency if it happens).
- Mitigate = reduce probability and/or impact (more tests, simpler processes, reliable vendors).
- Accept: passive = just document; active = set aside a reserve.
🎯 How this can come up · 2 questions
Running extra performance tests to lower the chance of a slow release is:
Correct: Mitigation.
Active acceptance means setting aside reserves of funds, time or resources.
True.
- Contingency plans do NOT reduce P or I. They define what to do when it happens.
- Example: disaster recovery plan.
- Contingency allowance = reserve pool.
- Fallback = Plan B if the primary response fails.
- Opportunities: exploit (make sure it happens), share (give to a third party who can capture it).
- Secondary = new risks CAUSED by your response.
- Residual = risk LEFT OVER after responding → contingency reserve.
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
After hiring an expert consultant as a risk response, the consultant falls ill. This is a:
Correct: Secondary risk.
- Register now also holds owners and triggers (warning signs).
- Plus reserves, fallback plans, residual and secondary risks, probabilistic analysis (Monte Carlo).
- Top-10 list: rank, previous rank, weeks on list, name, status. Low overhead, easy to share.
Asked in a real exam
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
List two software risk identification techniques and explain how you would mitigate, prioritize and monitor the risks (Final 251).
Identification: (1) brainstorming with a diverse team, and the Delphi technique where experts answer anonymously to avoid groupthink; (2) checklist analysis built from past projects and the lowest level of the RBS (also: root-cause/5-whys, assumptions analysis, interviews, SWOT). Prioritize: estimate probability and impact, compute risk exposure RE = P × I, and place each risk in the probability-impact matrix; actively manage only the top-10 high risks. Mitigate: choose a strategy per threat: avoid (remove the cause), transfer (contract or insurance), mitigate (more testing, simpler design), or accept with a contingency reserve; give every risk an owner. Monitor: keep a top-10 risk list and the risk register updated, review risks in weekly meetings and status reports, watch triggers, and hold reassessments and audits at milestones.
- Workaround = UNPLANNED fix for an unanticipated problem (vs. a contingency plan, which is planned).
🎯 How this can come up · 1 question
An unplanned corrective action for an unanticipated problem is a:
Correct: Workaround.
- Miniature milestones (1–2 days, done/not done) catch slippage early. Con: more tracking effort.
- Risks are a standing agenda item, in status reports and weekly reviews.
- Review even eliminated risks; they can come back.
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